It was 60 days in the past when the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were a symptom or the source of Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. As the England international curled home his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win any of their first six matches, are somehow a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough proposition to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
According to the data, in only two games has the side had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a club who have just won 10 in a row, the Villans look curiously susceptible – but at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping their star man to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again against United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition had more shots and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the player he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. As the hero positioned himself before the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
