Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
